Here’s a rewritten version of the article with all domain URLs removed:
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Almost five years ago, I wrote an article about predicting a site’s future and using your expectations to decide whether you should pursue links on that site today. Much has changed in the search engine optimization (SEO) landscape since then, so I decided to expand and update my original article.
## Sometimes, what’s old is old
It’s interesting to revisit sites we’ve worked with in the past and compare their previous and current metrics. Many things come up, such as:
– Old links are still live, but the host page is now full of new links whereas it wasn’t before.
– Pages that once ranked well no longer do.
– Articles with links that were not originally there have been added.
– And sometimes everything is the same, if not better!
## A look into the past
You can determine what a site looked like in the past and compare it to the current site by using archive services. You may notice many changes, such as good and bad redesigns, deleted links, and entire articles removed. Occasionally, you may notice whole sites that have been deindexed in search engines.
## Due diligence
When starting a link campaign, it is important to go through a series of steps or perform “due diligence” using checklists and guidelines you’ve established. While it may be impossible to check every page, try to do as much as possible so nothing is overlooked. Here are some issues to check for:
– Is the site indexed in search engines?
– Are there any spammy hacks on the site that haven’t been fixed?
– Is there contact info on the site?
– Does the site rank for its brand and major keywords?
– If you’re placing a link in an existing piece of content, does that page rank for its title?
– Is the site free from links and ads for gambling, payday loans, drugs, and adult content?
– Have you checked to make sure the content is original and not scraped or duplicated?
– And always, does it look like your link would be a natural fit and get clicked on here?
There’s more depending on the industry and the individual website, but it’s mostly common-sense stuff.
So how in the world can you predict what’s going to happen after you finish working on the site? How do you know the webmaster won’t fill the site up with spam, sell the domain, let it expire, or sell the site to a private blog network?
There tend to be signs, both good and bad. Let’s start with the bad signs.
## Bad signs
Here are a few red flags to look for when negotiating for link placement:
– The webmaster gives you a list of 50 other “great” sites he has. While some people just own a lot of sites, it is doubtful the other 50 will be as good as the one you sought out. Look carefully.
– The webmaster asks if you mind if he gives your information to “friends” who own similar websites. Watch for heavy interlinking with the friend sites—they may possibly even be owned by the same person using aliases.
– Traffic on a site has dipped dramatically in the past, even if it’s good now. If the dip was five years ago and everything has been good since it should be okay, but if you see lots of dips, especially in recent years, that may be a sign a new drop will happen soon.
– They openly advertise that they sell text links. Big warning here—you do not want to work with a site that is basically asking for a penalty.
## Good signs
Now let’s look at a couple of factors that distinguish sites where links live for years and everything is still looking great.
– Traffic is fairly steady (or continues to increase) through the years with no major dips.
– Articles are well-written, with guest or sponsored posts clearly identified and not filled with someone else’s links.
Notice the good list is shorter than the bad list. That’s because you can never fully predict what will happen. Is everyone eventually going to get hit in some way since the algorithm changes constantly? Maybe.
## Disavow madness
Don’t forget some people disavow like crazy, and they don’t just disavow single webpages—they disavow entire domains, because it’s easier. I know of sites that want to disavow upwards of 75% of their links when they don’t even have a penalty or haven’t been negatively impacted by an algorithmic change!
Honestly, when it comes to links, anything can happen. You never know when a site will be penalized, and it’s possible for them to get caught in a wide net and not deserve it. I’ve seen unfair penalties many times and seen sites suddenly drop in rankings and never return to where they once were, even if they did nothing wrong.
You can’t predict what will happen in link building or SEO. You can make some very educated guesses, but change is the only thing you can really guarantee.
