Online consumer spending in the U.S. reached $5.1 billion on Thanksgiving Day, showing flat year-over-year growth. Black Friday generated $8.9 billion, slightly less than the $9 billion in 2020, according to Adobe. Thanksgiving weekend sales did not outperform last year’s figures, although consumer spend is projected to achieve 10% YoY growth for the overall shopping season.
Adobe’s data is based on analyzing direct consumer transactions online. Projections derive from over one trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories.
Why we care. Cyber Week sales are struggling to meet last year’s levels, but that might be okay. “With 21 days in November driving over $3 billion in spend, what we know as Cyber Week is starting to look more like Cyber Month,” said Taylor Schreiner, director at Adobe Digital Insights. For reference, last November, only eight days topped $3 billion by November 28, 2020.
Supply chain issues, labor shortages, new consumer behaviors, and even a Google core update the week before Thanksgiving could be affecting retailer performance this Cyber Week. Due to these factors, businesses may fall short of their Cyber Week goals. However, Adobe still expects the full season (November 1 to December 31) to reach $207 billion (10% YoY growth). Therefore, it may be better to assess sales over a longer period, perhaps beginning at the start of November, to get a clearer picture of how campaigns and promotions performed this holiday season. This may also enable better YoY comparisons since customers seem to be shopping much earlier this year.
Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Actual Thanksgiving and Black Friday online consumer spend came in at the low end of Adobe’s predictions: Consumers spent $5.1 billion on Thanksgiving Day (the same as in 2020). On Black Friday, consumers spent $8.9 billion, slightly less than in 2020, when it was $9 billion.
For reference, Thanksgiving Day drove $4.2 billion in online spend just two years ago (2019). This marks the first time Adobe has reported decreased spending on major shopping days since it began reporting on e-commerce in 2012.
Thanksgiving weekend. Online sales slumped even harder over the weekend than during Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday: On Saturday, November 27, consumers spent $4.5 billion online, down 4.3% YoY. On Sunday, November 28, they spent $4.7 billion online, down by a narrower margin of 0.5%.
On November 27 and 28, the prevalence of out-of-stock messages rose 16% compared to the previous weekend (November 20 and 21). Supply chain concerns may have contributed to inventory shortages, potentially explaining the sales slowdown. Customers may also have adjusted their behavior to shop earlier to avoid inventory shortages or to take advantage of earlier sales: Between November 1 and November 28, consumers spent $99.1 billion, up 13.6% YoY. This season, 21 days have exceeded $3 billion in online sales, compared to just eight days by this time last year.
The Cyber Monday outlook. Inventory issues and new, earlier consumer shopping patterns are impacting Adobe’s Cyber Monday projections: Consumers are expected to spend between $10.2 billion and $11.3 billion on Cyber Monday. If actual sales meet those expectations, Cyber Monday will likely be the biggest online shopping day of 2021, possibly retaining that title without necessarily exceeding last year’s figure of $10.8 billion.
Cyber Monday discounts are also expected to be weaker than last year. Discount levels have decreased across several product categories, Adobe said: TVs are seeing discounts of -16% (compared to -19% in 2020), apparel is discounted at -15% (-20% last year), computers are at -14% (-28% last year), and appliances are at -8% (-20% last year).
UPDATE: Cyber Monday actuals. Consumer online spend on Cyber Monday 2021 totaled $10.7 billion, down 1.4% YoY. Despite falling just short of last year’s spend, Cyber Monday remains the biggest online shopping day of the year. During peak hours (11 p.m. to 12 a.m. ET / 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. PT), consumers spent $12 million every minute.
In total, Cyber Week (from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday) drove $33.9 billion in online spend, also down 1.4% YoY.
